All,
The following links will take you to various important news articles and political analyses on the crucial upcoming Democratic Party primaries in Texas and Ohio and a couple other smaller states. The voting in Texas and Ohio will in all likelihood finally determine who will be the Democratic Party nominee for 2008. The bottom line is that Hillary Clinton has to win big in both states by margins that are at least 20 points ahead of Obama to have any shot at all at prolonging the primary process beyond the March 4 date. If Obama WINS these two states IT'S ALL OVER AND HE'S THE NOMINEE. However, all Obama has to do IF he doesn't win both of these primaries is to stay at least within striking distance (5-8 points) of Clinton and HE'S STILL IN. The reason for this is because Texas and Ohio--like nearly all the Democratic Party state primaries--award delegates in any race on a PROPORTIONAL basis instead of winner-take-all (which is the system that the Republicans use for their primaries). So if Obama can get at least 42-45% of the vote in both Texas and Ohio he will have enough delegates to pull within 150 delegates of victory (the final balance of which he no doubt has among his already pledged 'super delegates' if Clinton foolishly decides to go that route at the convention). But even before that there is still another major primary in Pennsylvania on April 22 where Obama would only have to win 40% of the vote if he loses by margins of 5-8 points or less in Texas and Ohio. But the Democratic National Committee and their most prominent superdelegates in the DP (90% of whom are elected officials) have already stated loud and clear that they will NOT have a brokered convention where an extended slugfest over superdelegate votes within the Party would seriously undermine the possibility and obvious need of the DP to reach a consensus of complete political unity going into the fight for the White House after their convention in August.
So to make a long story much shorter the voting in Texas and Ohio on tuesday March 4 looks extremely good for Obama right now based on the polls. But of course one can't only go by that because as we all know polls can be very unreliable in terms of their capacity for consistently accurate predictions. But based on the news coming directly out of these two states which can be found in the articles below things do look VERY GOOD FOR OBAMA going into March 4. Let's all hope Barack can wrap it up on tuesday night and effectively end this primary season as the Democratic Party choice in preparation for the DP convention in August (and the inevitable bloody battle against John McCain and the notoriously racist, sexist, authoritarian, and reactionary rightwing monsters of the Republican Party) as the next nominee for the Presidency of the this country. Let the games begin...
Kofi
OBAMA IN 2008!
Click on the following links:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/DN-blackbrown_29met.ART.State.Edition2.2a5eefa.html
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/5580776.html
http://lubbockonline.com/stories/022908/loc_252299440.shtml
An AP article: Candidates' backers not as predictable
MarketWatch story: Clinton barely edging out obama
NY Times article on what a long battle holds for Obama
SF Gate on How to Hate Obama
Reuters on Urban Texas turnout for Obama
The following links will take you to various important news articles and political analyses on the crucial upcoming Democratic Party primaries in Texas and Ohio and a couple other smaller states. The voting in Texas and Ohio will in all likelihood finally determine who will be the Democratic Party nominee for 2008. The bottom line is that Hillary Clinton has to win big in both states by margins that are at least 20 points ahead of Obama to have any shot at all at prolonging the primary process beyond the March 4 date. If Obama WINS these two states IT'S ALL OVER AND HE'S THE NOMINEE. However, all Obama has to do IF he doesn't win both of these primaries is to stay at least within striking distance (5-8 points) of Clinton and HE'S STILL IN. The reason for this is because Texas and Ohio--like nearly all the Democratic Party state primaries--award delegates in any race on a PROPORTIONAL basis instead of winner-take-all (which is the system that the Republicans use for their primaries). So if Obama can get at least 42-45% of the vote in both Texas and Ohio he will have enough delegates to pull within 150 delegates of victory (the final balance of which he no doubt has among his already pledged 'super delegates' if Clinton foolishly decides to go that route at the convention). But even before that there is still another major primary in Pennsylvania on April 22 where Obama would only have to win 40% of the vote if he loses by margins of 5-8 points or less in Texas and Ohio. But the Democratic National Committee and their most prominent superdelegates in the DP (90% of whom are elected officials) have already stated loud and clear that they will NOT have a brokered convention where an extended slugfest over superdelegate votes within the Party would seriously undermine the possibility and obvious need of the DP to reach a consensus of complete political unity going into the fight for the White House after their convention in August.
So to make a long story much shorter the voting in Texas and Ohio on tuesday March 4 looks extremely good for Obama right now based on the polls. But of course one can't only go by that because as we all know polls can be very unreliable in terms of their capacity for consistently accurate predictions. But based on the news coming directly out of these two states which can be found in the articles below things do look VERY GOOD FOR OBAMA going into March 4. Let's all hope Barack can wrap it up on tuesday night and effectively end this primary season as the Democratic Party choice in preparation for the DP convention in August (and the inevitable bloody battle against John McCain and the notoriously racist, sexist, authoritarian, and reactionary rightwing monsters of the Republican Party) as the next nominee for the Presidency of the this country. Let the games begin...
Kofi
OBAMA IN 2008!
Click on the following links:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/DN-blackbrown_29met.ART.State.Edition2.2a5eefa.html
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/5580776.html
http://lubbockonline.com/stories/022908/loc_252299440.shtml
An AP article: Candidates' backers not as predictable
MarketWatch story: Clinton barely edging out obama
NY Times article on what a long battle holds for Obama
SF Gate on How to Hate Obama
Reuters on Urban Texas turnout for Obama
